Research Symposium

BIO

Max A. Blumenfeld is a senior at Florida State University, studying economics and international affairs with a math minor. He is the founder of the DeVoe Moore Center's (DMC) aerospace team, researching space economics by focusing on space debris' impacts on launches. Max also works as a student researcher for the DMC's housing affordability team, analyzing impact fees and the housing shortage in Florida.
Originally from Germany, Max is multilingual, speaking fluent German and intermediate French and Russian. He loves astronomy and enjoys backpacking and the outdoors.

The Impact of Space Debris on Launches

Abstract

Our growing reliance on satellites and the increasing presence of debris set the stage for potential economic disaster. We rely on satellites for television, banking, communication, and navigation, and the industry is expected to grow 20% over the next ten years (Christensen, 2023). Satellites, however, largely operate in Low Earth Orbit, where the area is limited and the threat of damaging space debris is especially prominent. Debris mitigation efforts are already estimated to cost upwards of $70 million annually, and are set to rise 40% annually compounded (Saisuman Revankar, 2025).


This research asks: “What impact, if any, does space debris have on the frequency of launches into Low Earth Orbit?” and “What are the potential economic effects and policy implications of space debris on launches?” This research employs a time series regression analysis with 67 annual observations from 1957 to 2024 to find the relationship between percent change in space debris and percent change in frequency of annual launches. Spacetrack.org data was utilized for the average annual payload to launch ratio. Costs per launch was broken down per kilogram using 1961 to 2019 data from CSIS Aerospace Security Project and projected forward and backward to include outliers.


Preliminary results indicate that, when holding constant annual payload averages per launch and the cost per launch, space debris has a diminishing effect on the frequency of launches into Low Earth Orbit. These findings are consistent with the predictions of Kessler and Cour-Palais in their 1978 paper defining “The Kessler Effect.”

Keywords: Space, Economics, Environment