Research Symposium

BIO

Ronan Connell is a driven individual from Rowayton, CT, with aspirations of becoming an NFL general manager. Currently a FSU Presidential Scholar, Ronan is committed to academic excellence while also serving as the Esports Director for Outlast Gaming. With a passion for sports management and a strong leadership background in esports, Ronan hopes to make significant strides in the world of professional sports.

Optimal NFL Play Call in Short Yardage Situations

Abstract

This research examines the optimal play call for short-yardage situations in the NFL, an area with limited prior analysis. Understanding which play type—run or pass—is most effective in these scenarios could provide valuable insights for coaches and analysts. Using nflreadR, I filtered relevant data from recent seasons and implemented logistic regression models in R to assess the success rates of different play types. Additionally, I manually categorized certain plays, such as designed quarterback runs, to ensure a more precise analysis.
The findings indicate that running plays are generally more effective than passing plays in short-yardage situations. Additionally quarterback runs instead of running back runs, no-huddle tempo, and jumbo packages are all more effective at converting than other formations or tempos. The more defenders in the box, the greater the distance to the first down and goal line situations all decrease the likelihood of success. The model I helped create predicts success with acceptable reliability and allowed for me to analyze if NFL teams under or over perform on average in these short yardage situations.
These insights have important implications for play-calling strategies in the NFL. If teams optimize their approach based on these findings, they may improve short-yardage conversion rates by favoring run-heavy play calls in appropriate situations. This research contributes to the growing field of football analytics and could inform decision-making at the professional level.

Keywords: football, NFL, data analytics